Soccer’s unpredictability is what makes it so exciting, especially when it comes to betting. While most bettors lean toward favorites, underdog wagers can be tempting due to the massive payouts they offer. But do these bets provide real value, or are they just high-risk gambles?
Winning an underdog bet is thrilling. Seeing a lower-ranked team pull off a shocking upset feels satisfying, especially when the odds are heavily stacked against them. However, betting on underdogs without a solid strategy can quickly lead to frustration.
To make smarter wagers, it’s essential to understand when betting on an underdog makes sense and when it’s simply wishful thinking.
Why Underdogs Offer High Rewards
Bookmakers set odds based on a team’s perceived chances of winning. Favorites, backed by strong performances, better squads, or historical dominance, are assigned lower odds, meaning smaller payouts. Underdogs, on the other hand, have odds that reflect their lower probability of winning. These inflated odds translate into potentially huge returns if the team defies expectations.
For example, if an underdog is given +600 odds, a $100 bet would return $600 in profit. The appeal is obvious. A single correct underdog bet can make up for multiple small losses on favorites. The key is knowing which underdog bets have real potential and which are long shots for a reason.
Examining factors such as team form, injuries, and head-to-head records can help identify value plays. Resources like FanDuel soccer odds offer valuable insights into how betting markets react to these factors, helping bettors spot opportunities others might overlook.
The psychological factor also plays a role. There’s something special about cheering for an underdog and watching them overcome the odds. That emotional thrill is part of why bettors continue to take risks on less-favored teams, even when the odds say otherwise. Underdog wagers can be more than risky plays for those who research and time their bets wisely. Risks can be calculated with real upsides.
Understanding the Risks
High odds come with high risk. Underdogs are labeled as such because they statistically have a lower chance of winning. A well-structured betting strategy is essential to avoid blindly throwing money at long-shot bets. Careful analysis of team performance, player availability, and match context can make all the difference in spotting value.
Recent form is one of the biggest indicators of an underdog’s chances. A team on a strong run of performances might be undervalued against a higher-ranked opponent struggling with consistency. Momentum is a powerful factor in soccer, and recognizing when an underdog is hitting their stride can reveal excellent betting opportunities.
Studying the Latest Soccer Game Matchups at FanDuel provides insight into how odds shift based on recent results, helping bettors identify when an underdog is gaining traction in the betting markets.
Another crucial consideration is match importance. Sometimes, favorites rest key players in less critical games, giving underdogs a better shot at an upset. Cup matches, especially early-round fixtures, often see big clubs fielding weaker lineups, opening the door for surprise results. Understanding when an underdog has more to play for than their opponent can be the key to placing a smart, well-timed bet.
Spotting a Strong Underdog Bet
Not all underdogs are equal. Some teams genuinely have a shot at winning despite the odds, while others are priced as long shots for a reason. Knowing how to differentiate between the two is crucial.
Team motivation can’t be overlooked. If an underdog is fighting to avoid relegation, they may bring an intensity that a mid-table team lacks. On the other hand, a favorite that has already secured a league title might not be as motivated to go all out.
The impact of injuries and suspensions can also shift the balance, favoring an underdog. If a favorite is missing key players, its dominance may not be as secure as the odds suggest. Team depth plays a huge role here. Some clubs have the squad to cover injuries, while others struggle without their best players.
Home-field advantage can also tip the scales. Underdogs playing in front of a passionate home crowd often perform above expectations. Some stadiums create intense atmospheres that can disrupt even the most composed teams, turning a supposed mismatch into a more even contest.
How to Bet Smarter on Underdogs
Instead of betting blindly on an underdog to win outright, alternative approaches can offer more consistent results. One strategy is betting on underdogs to cover the spread. If a weaker team is given a +1.5 goal handicap, they only need to avoid losing by more than one goal for the bet to pay off.
Another method is live betting. Watching the game unfold before placing a bet allows for more informed decisions. If an underdog starts strong, controlling possession or creating chances, the odds may reflect their pre-match status rather than their actual in-game performance.
Focusing on individual matchups can also provide an edge. Some teams struggle against certain styles of play. A defensively compact underdog facing a favorite that relies on breaking down deep-lying defenses could present a good betting opportunity.
Famous Upsets That Paid Big
Soccer history is full of legendary underdog wins. The most famous example is Leicester City’s improbable 2015-16 Premier League title, where they started the season at 5000-to-1 odds. While season-long bets like that are rare successes, one-off match-ups happen far more frequently.
In the 2018 World Cup, South Korea eliminated defending champions Germany with a 2-0 victory. Few expected it, but those who bet on South Korea reaped massive rewards.
Another shocking upset came in the Champions League when Ajax, filled with young players, eliminated Real Madrid in 2019. Those who recognized Ajax’s strong form and Madrid’s struggles secured a massive payout.
Are Underdogs Worth the Bet?
Success in underdog betting comes down to research, timing, and discipline. The key is not to bet on every underdog blindly but to find those with legitimate chances based on form, motivation, and game conditions. Bet on underdogs can be profitable for those willing to put in the effort. It takes patience and a keen eye for opportunity, but when done right, it offers one of the most exciting ways to bet on soccer.